System Operator expects sufficient generation to meet demand over Winter, but notes current outage challenges
Northern Ireland’s electricity Transmission System Operator, SONI (System Operator for Northern Ireland) has published its annual Winter Outlook where it says it expects there to be sufficient generation to meet consumer demand over the Winter period in normal operating conditions.
The assessment indicates the likelihood of any disruption to consumers due to insufficient generation as being small, provided the full portfolio of generation remains available, and points to an improved picture compared to Winter 2023/24.
However, the System Operator has also noted some recent hurdles with unforeseen forced outages of generation in the last few months and has highlighted that some challenges may remain in the lead up to the Winter period.
SONI is Northern Ireland’s electricity Transmission System Operator, ensuring power can flow safely, securely and reliably from where it is generated to where it is needed. The System Operator does not generate or sell electricity. Rather, its role is to balance consumer demand, in real-time, with the generation made available by those companies who secure contracts through the all-island market for electricity.
Director of Operations, Emma Morris, said;
“Each year, we publish an annual Winter Outlook to help support preparations for the Winter period. Our latest studies show that we expect there to be sufficient generation to meet consumer demand this coming Winter in normal operating conditions, even when we consider the expected natural variation of demand, renewable generation, and interconnector flows. In comparison to Winter 2023/24, our assessments point to an improved picture.”
“Operating any power system is inherently complex, and so of course our assessments are based on normal operating conditions and the expectation that our full portfolio of conventional generation is made available to us. At this stage, our analysis indicates the likelihood of any disruption for consumers this Winter due to insufficient generation as being small. However, our Winter Outlook does note some recent challenges the power system has experienced with unforeseen forced outages of conventional generation. While some of these challenges may remain in the period leading up to Winter, our experienced grid control engineers have tried and tested plans in place to minimise the risk of any disruption. As with previous Winters, there is a risk of tight days on the system, should periods of cold, still weather overlap with forced or unplanned outages of conventional generation.”
“As a System Operator, our priority is always to ensure a safe, secure and reliable supply of electricity to homes, farms, businesses and public services across Northern Ireland. However, we also must remember that it is consumers that ultimately pay for this generation and so we seek to plan the power system as efficiently as possible to minimise any unnecessary costs at a time when energy bills remain high.”
“Over the coming weeks, we will be engaging with our partners and stakeholders across Northern Ireland to discuss our assessments in more detail to support them with their normal Winter contingency planning as we do every year.”
The publication also included an assessment of a challenging Winter 2023/24 period due to delays in the delivery of new generation by market participants. The analysis indicates that Northern Ireland’s electricity system relied on renewable generation and imports from Great Britain for more than a third of the Winter period.
Emma Morris continued:
“As the System Operator, we are continually balancing a wide-range of external and variable factors, including the integration of new, weather-dependent sources of clean generation, the need for planned outages for essential maintenance and unforeseen forced outages, and the timely delivery of new generation by the companies who secure contracts through the market. All power systems around the world are managing these challenges which will be mitigated in the future with new technologies such as Long Duration Energy Storage.”
“As a result of exceptional availability of our generation portfolio, the experience and expertise of our grid control engineers and our tried and tested mitigation plans, the power system performed well in Winter 2023/24 without any disruption.”
“We continue to work closely with the Department for the Economy, the Utility Regulator and NIE Networks on security of supply to ensure we can meet consumer demand in the coming months and years.”
The grid operator has issued three System Alerts in 2024. The System Alert in the Winter period was due to high demand, cold, still weather conditions and delays in new conventional generation capacity coming on to the system whilst the two Summer System Alerts were due to forced outages on conventional generation.
When SONI issues a System Alert, there is no immediate impact for users of electricity. Instead, a System Alert warns of a heightened risk of potential temporary electricity supply issues in the near future so that pre-planned mitigation actions can be taken across electricity sector to protect the integrity of the grid.
All System Alerts passed without any further incidents and no disruption to consumers.
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